January 22, 2011

The Black Hole Predicts...

With only three days to go before Oscar nominations are released, it's time for me to chime in with my oh so meticulously selected predictions. Let the merriment being.

Best Picture

The Social Network
The King's Speech
The Fighter
Black Swan
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Kids Are All Right
The Town 
127 Hours

The Social Network has all but won this one. If was choosing the winners, I'd go with Black Swan, but Fincher's tale of socially inept geniuses has far too much momentum to be stopped now. Winter's Bone might squeeze in here, ousting Hours, Town, or Kids, but I think the fact that it is a little under seen and doesn't boast any instantly recognizable stars will hurt it in the end.

Best Director 

David Fincher (The Social Network)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O' Russell (The Fighter)

Another win for The Social Network is all but guaranteed here. Fincher has a big head start, and the fact that he has been passed up for the win before can only help his chances. If anyone can challenge him, it's Nolan, but something tells me that the Inception will have to grab its awards elsewhere.

Best Actress 

Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Natalie Portman is going to win, so there's really no point in talking about anyone else.

Best Actor 

Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)

Firth is the likely winner here, but I could very easily see Franco ousting him. I'm putting Gosling here instead of Robert Duvall for Get Low, because of the amount of buzz Blue Valentine has been generating over the past few weeks.

Best Supporting Actress 

Helena Bonham-Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

This one is the hardest to call of the major awards; there's no clear winner. I will place my bet for Leo though. The Academy passed her up once before... although they've done that as well with Carter and Adams... I just don't know. I am gonna be calling bullshit if Steinfeld does get nominated here, since she's a Lead Actress (in every scene, mind you), but, it will be nice to see her work recognized.

Best Supporting Actor 

Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)

Christian Bale pretty much has this one in the bag, but, sue me, I could still see the Academy going for Garfield. It's a toss up between those two. No one else has a shot.

Best Original Screenplay 

Inception (Christopher Nolan)
The Kids Are All Right (Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg)
Black Swan (Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, & John McLaughlin)
The Kings Speech (David Seidler)
The Fighter (Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, & Eric Johnson)

Call me crazy, but I'm predicting a win for Inception here. It's already got a few screenplay awards, and with The Social Network far away in adapted land, the field is much more level. Kids may take it, but I think the Academy wants to recognize Nolan with something major. Why not this?

Best Adapted Screenplay 

The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Winter's Bone (Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini)
True Grit (Joel and Ethan Coen)
The Town (Ben Affleck, Peter Craig, & Aaron Stockard)
The Ghost Writer (Robert Harris & Roman Polanski)

Again, not a competition. Aaron has probably already cleared some space on the mantle for this baby.

Uhhhh... what else? Toy Story 3 will win Best Animated (which shall now be called the Pixar Award), Inception, Alice In Wonderland, Iron Man 2, and TRON will fight over the technicals, and something from Burlesque will win Best Original Song. Here's to hoping that both The Social Network and Tron: Legacy are nominated for Best Original Score, if only because it would be awesome to see Trent Reznor and Daft Punk at the Academy Awards.

Film That Won't Get Nominated For Anything Even Though It Totally Should Have Been Nominated for Pretty Much Everything? 
Uhhhhh... obviously, Let Me In.

Follow up to this on Tuesday. See you then.

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